Friday, October 17, 2014

WINEP has a poll about the views of Arabs: and why it is not reliable at all

First of all: how can you trust a survey that is introduced as such: "The polls were conducted in September by a leading commercial survey firm in the Middle East".  Based on WINEP history of unreliable generalization about the region and its bogus methods of research on the region, I have a nagging suspicion that this "leading commercial survey firm" is none other than a Lebanese right-wing March 14 polling firm (and I know the name) and it has (like all Lebanese polling firms) of cooking the numbers and producing results that are favorable to the sponsor.  The numbers don't make sense at all.  In fact, it is laughable.  There are many opinion surveys conducted in Lebanon and there are regular free elections which allows one to make assumptions about public opinion trends and they don't conform to the results of the this survey.  1) there are no surveys in Lebanon which show that Hizbullah standing among Sunnis, for example, are less than 10%.  That has not been backed up by any surveys, published or unpublished that I have seen. Usually it ranges from 20 to 30%.  Look at the results of elections by Sunni candidates who are aligned with Hizbullah.  2) the notion that ISIS has 0% among Sunnis in Lebanon also does not make sense at all.  ISIS has been sheltered, trained, sponsored, and aided in Lebanon ever since the organization started operating in Lebanon.  That also does not make sense. Hell, there have been demonstrations by supporters of ISIS in the Biqa` (`Irsal) and also in Tripoli.  The Asir movement in Sidon is also aligned with ISIS.  I was expecting a higher figure by Sunnis. 3) the figures for support for Hamas by Sunni Arabs are far lower than expected. It seems those numbers were cooked as well. Conclusion, you may disregard this survey entirely.

PS I know from my sources that Western embassies in Lebanon commissioned surveys about Christian attitudes toward Hizbullah and they showed markedly higher support for Hizbullah due to the looming danger of ISIS.