Friday, May 31, 2013

How do you know when the regime is about to fall

We should have known that the Syrian regime was more resilient than what was being reported in Western press.  There were many signs that the predictions of the imminent fall of the regime (next week, at most) were far more premature.  But two signs were important: 1) defections remained miniscule that propagandists in Western (and gas and oil Arab) media were jumping up and down whenever a mid-level clerk defected.  2) there were no wholesale defections of units within the Army.  When people decide that the regime is falling, they take steps to make that decision known.  We are now in for the long haul, and that maybe what the US and Israel want for Syria, promises of liberation notwithstanding.